Its NFP day for a look at the labor market in the US January

Before a look at what Goldman Sachs is expecting:

  • Due at 1330GMT
  • Headline expected is 180K
  • Prior 156K

From GS:

  • Forecast +200k in January

GS is looking for a reacceleration, citing:

  • Lower-than-usual year-end layoffs
  • Favourable weather effects
  • Further improvement in labour market indicators

GS believes the U3 unemployment rate is likely to fall one-tenth to 4.6%

  • which would mark a return to the cycle low
  • in part driven by reduced year-end retail layoffs

GS expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y

  • Reflecting firming labor markets & state-level minimum wage hikes

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I posted an earlier preview here: US January employment report - NFP preview

It includes a look at the ADP and claims data from earlier this week and what these indicate for the NFP (spoiler ... probably not much)