No changes to their assessment from two weeks ago

Brexit

The firm continues to see the probability of a no-deal Brexit being at 15%, the probability of a no Brexit outcome being at 35%, and a probability of a ratified/delayed Brexit deal being at 50%. That's similar to their assessment here on 30 January.

The firm views that there is a majority in parliament to avoid a no-deal outcome if called upon and says that there is no majority for another referendum, in justifying the above odds. As for yesterday's development, the firm says that:

"In our view, the Prime Minister will repeatedly try to defer the definitive parliamentary vote on her negotiated Brexit deal, and the intensification of tail risks will continue to play a role in incentivising the eventual ratification of that deal in a divided House of Commons."