A successful resolution of talks in Vienna is the market expectation and thus the return of Iran oil to market.

GS comments (in summary):

  • case for higher oil prices remains intact
  • large vaccine-driven increase in demand
  • market pricing a return of Iranian barrels by late (northern) summer
  • market is underestimating the upcoming demand rebound
  • GS lowered its non-OPEC+ production forecasts by 0.25m b/d in 2H, citing still-depressed activity levels, reduced shale supply response
  • "even aggressively assuming a restart in July, we estimate that Brent prices would still reach $80/bbl in 4Q 2021, with our new base case for an October restart still supporting our $80/bbl forecast for this summer"

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The talks in Vienna are aimed at reinstating the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), negotiations continue over the conditions to apply.

A successful resolution of talks in Vienna is the market expectation and thus the return of Iran oil to market.