Gold price projections from Goldman Sachs:
- 3 months $1450 (prior forecast was at $1350)
- 6 months $1475 (from $1350)
- 12 months $1475 (from $1425)
Reasoning from GS:
- gold supported by central bank buying, GS expect the buying to be more than 100 tonnes over last year's levels
- lower real interest rates to support gold
More:
- base case scenario is global growth gradually improves in H2 of 2019
- recession worries recede
- should eventually lead to a gradual moderation in "fear" driven investment demand for gold
- Emerging market GDP growth gradually improves
GS say they see less tactical upside for gold
- but weak growth in DM is a positive strategically (portfolio diversification)
- if slow growth in DM persists, GS expect 2016 to repeat (ETF buying increased by 800 tonnes Jan to Sep that year) - this could take gold prices above $1600
