GS are forecasting a headline +750K for the NFP due Friday 4 June 2021 at 1230 GMT
- Their unemployment rate forecast is 5.8%
- we believe the further easing of business restrictions more than offset a moderate drag from labor supply factors and seasonality.
For the background to this and consensus estimates etc check out this from earlier:
And, while on the subject of NFP previews, this via TD on what they are looking for:
- we see some downside risk versus the consensus
- ADP series has not been a reliable indicator of what to expect from the BLS
- The differential between the initial BLS private payrolls figure and the initial ADP reading (which is for the private sector only) can be relatively small sometimes, but extremely large other times: It was -524k in April (with payrolls +218K and ADP+742k) following +263k in March (with payrolls stronger than ADP), +348k in February, -168k in January, +28k in December, +37k in November, +514k October, +128k in September, +727k in August, +1295k in July and +2398k in June.
- our 500K estimate would likely be seen as a disappointment to those looking for a rebound from April's lacklustre report.
