I’m definitely not one for making predictions but as this is the time of year to customarily throw the dust off a crystal ball or two here’s some gut feelings for 2014, although I’m not rushing to put any trades on just yet.

1) USDJPY will rally a little further c.107-108 then find further progress tougher to achieve as sales tax hikes, lack of further monetary stimulus in a significant form, and the fact that the world and his Mum are short yen all drive the pair into exhaustion. Expect correction back to 98 then 95 after a brief rally. Yen pairs will correspondingly move lower.

2) EURUSD will be on the back-foot but continue to find support in the dips from ACB $ diversification ( they/China simply can’t afford to let it drop too far), and the fact that there’s little more the ECB can do to ease monetary condititons despite their protestations to the contrary. The pair will have little direct USD correlation as it gets caught up in the crossplay crossfire.

3) EURCHF will head back down to 1.2150 and then sub-1.2100 before incurring the concerns of the SNB but the swissy will continue to find good demand overall. Market already massively short of the franc. And yes, I’m talking my book.

4) EURGBP to grind its way higher after an initial wobble but I don’t see any real reason why it should trade outside the 0.8100-0.8800 range that we’ve had in 2013

5) And last, but by no means least, GBPUSD which of course will continue to dominate the landscape and head up to 1.75-1.85 and then break through 2.00 once again (just teasing) will run out of oxygen as the ” best of a bad bunch” title wears thin after the UK recovery comes to a grinding halt and the threat of rising interest rates finally hits home.

Risk events to look out for include ( in no particular order):

1) A worsening in Japan-China/Asia relations exacerbated by PM Abe’s recent visit to the Yakusuni war shrine

2) China’s much lauded Third Plenum reforms to be mostly froth and window dressing for the external masses, making little impact on the deeper economy that’s so needed.

3) US Fed tapering has little effect and only ends up putting a squeeze back on the fragile recovery as cheap money dissipates

3) UK govt in-fighting to intensify as the general election planned for 2015 looms ever large, and indeed could be called early. Stranger things have happened.

4) The Eurozone – whilst they mave have escaped the worst predictions for 2013 the multi-country union continues to be a diverse and fragile entity.

There’s plenty more I could chew on right now, and indeed will over the next few days including some trading “do’s and dont’s” to remember, but those of you out there who have taken note of my musings and mantras this year will know I’m not one for assumptions or inflexibility when it comes to trading.

Have a longer-term/ underlying view but expect all the rationale to go out of the window at regular intervals. Trade what you see and have a fantastic 2014.

Happy New Year to you all and thanks for your wonderful trading input, humour, and constructive criticism. We hope we’ve helped you make or save a few pips along the way.