Trade balance data for November is due from China on Saturday 8 December 2018

I know, that sucks right? :-D

The trade data is a risk for markets, especially China-proxy trades such as the Australian dollar.

The trade war was expected to see Chinese exports fall, but they have held in very well, perhaps due to 'front loading', perhaps not. So, a Saturday data release for trade could result in a gappy opening on Monday in early trade. Or not. But its a risk, and one I am highlighting here. How to manage it is up to each trader, of course. (Its hip to be square might be a good mantra for the weekend)

Anyway, without any further ado …

Yuan terms

  • China trade balance: expected CNY 214.10bn, prior was CNY 233.63bn
  • Exports y/y: expected +9.9%, prior was +15.6%
  • Imports y/y: expected +14.0%, prior was +21.4%

USD terms

  • China trade balance: expected $ 34.00bn, prior was $ 34.022bn
  • Exports: expected 12.6%, prior 20.1%
  • Imports: expected 17.8%, prior was 26.3%

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ps. overnight data from the US: US October trade balance -$55.5B vs -$55.0B expected
had this wee snippet:

  • US-China October deficit $43.1B vs $40.24B prior

Note, yeah that was Oct data, not Nov.

But still.