NZ CPI data is due at 2145 GMT on Wednesday 24 January 2018

Which is Thursday morning NZ time. In order to give you some time to digest, here are previews (bolding mine)

ANZ:

  • We expect headline CPI inflation to hold steady at 1.9% y/y in Q4. ... a touch above the RBNZ's expectations.
  • Some of the more volatile components (food, petrol and airfares) will make broadly offsetting contributions. Housing will again contribute positively, but evidence of a broadening in domestic price increases will remain tentative at best.
  • Core inflation measures are likely to be stable around 1½-2%.
  • We still expect domestic inflation to rise gradually in time. However, questions over when and how aggressively this occurs will likely remain unanswered by these figures, keeping the RBNZ side-lined.

ASB:

  • We expect the CPI to print at 0.5% qoq in Q4 with annual CPI inflation firming to 2.0% (the second time annual inflation has reached at least 2% in the last year).
  • This lift reflects of a number of one-off movements, rather than stronger underlying inflation.
  • For example, the sharp jump in petrol prices over the quarter accounts for nearly half of the quarter's lift in inflation. On top of that, the shift to updated CPI weightings added to Q4 inflation, at the margin.
  • A contained backdrop for overall inflation should encourage a prolonged period of stability in OCR settings. The next move in the OCR is most likely to be up, but this still looks to be a 2019 story.

BNZ:

  • We are in line with the market in expecting a 0.4% increase for the quarter, leaving annual inflation at 1.9%.
  • The RBNZ, in its November Monetary Policy Statement, expected annual CPI inflation of 1.8% (based on 0.3% for the quarter). This involved non- tradables inflation decelerating to 2.4%, from 2.6% in Q3, and tradables inflation remaining at 1.0% y/y.
  • It will also pay to check the range of "official" core inflation measures for Q4, especially the sectoral factor model version produced and favoured by the RBNZ, which, at 1.4% y/y in Q3, was obviously lagging the others.
  • Providing the Q4 CPI doesn't shock, the debate will turn to how the NZ CPI will print in the early stages of 2018. In particular, that there is a good chance its annual rate of inflation will slow in Q1 2018 - simply because a stocky quarterly result from Q1 2017 will be dropping out of the calculations.
  • We expect CPI inflation to dip to 1.5% y/y in Q1, for instance, and stay there in Q2.