The ECB are as data dependant as the Fed so here's 3 indicators that are worth watching
Adam posted up the comprehensive list of data due this week. Here's what will be important to the ECB
Manufacturing PMI's
We get the final manufacturing numbers tomorrow and we'll need to have a closer look at the prices details within the reports. We may or may not get any actual numbers but the Markit reports will have plenty of comments on them.
The main Eurozone flash number rose to the highest since May 2014 at 52.8 and is expected unchanged. We also get the first numbers for Spain and Italy before the main EZ data so that could have a bearing. If the US is moaning about the strength of the dollar affecting its manufacturing then the Eurozone should be creaming it in, surely?
Unemployment
Also tomorrow we get the latest unemployment numbers. Unemployment has been falling in the main and more strong numbers will cement the view that ECB QE is working. Eurozone unemployment is expected unchanged at 10.8%. That's some way off the 12.1% seen in Mar/Apr 2013
Inflation
Probably the biggest number for the ECB this week comes in Wednesday from the first reading of November inflation. There's been good signals that inflation is trying to build across the region. It's not likely to all be plain sailing though, as we saw today. German inflation was higher but Italian prices dropped a chunk. Headline EZ CPI is expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0.1% y/y. The all important core is expected unchanged at 1.1% y/y. I would suggest we maybe expect inflation to rise perhaps a touch more than expected
Here's how inflation has looked over the year so far
Eurozone inflation numbers
We can add PPI data in the mix too at the same time as the CPI release but they are for October so only a side note really
Again I've got to question some of the ECB members going on about wanting to see more data before making a decision on Thursday. There really isn't going to be any huge differences in the data that could sway them, unless a percentage point here and there is enough to tip their decisions one way or another. It seems that whatever comes out the ECB are going to act anyway in one form or another. If there are any big variations in the data then they could sway the severity of action
Trading wise, the euro has both eyes on the ECB meeting and is unlikely to do much on the data releases (unless there's some really big differences), so trading the data is probably a pointless exercise. The data should be used to try and hone expectations for the ECB on Thursday, and on that, it's difficult to feel that Draghi will say or do anything that sends the euro higher