This via TD on gold, making sensible points but a useful recap nonetheless:
- Real rates are now rising along with nominal yields due to stimulus optimism and risk appetite, with the USD also off its lows.
- Given that the US economy will continue to positively respond to an additional trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus and continued Fed measures, it is quite likely that rates and the dollar may see some better days into 2020.
- This, along with profit-taking by the very active retail investors and COMEX margin increases should see gold consolidate lower.
- Before … new highs ($2,100+, $30+), there will need to be confirmation that the Fed will indeed suppress yields, consider average inflation targeting and there are signs that inflation may move higher
- At the same time, markets will want to see if monetization of debt is in the cards, before talk of these levels becoming sustained is credible.
- TD securities projects an average gold price of $2,100/oz in Q4-2021 and $30/oz silver price during the same period
I've summarised, bolding is mine also.
