Regular readers of ForexLive during the Asian timezone will know that I am a September Fed rate hike guy ...
So, what is with the headline, you may be asking?
Its just me being annoying, that's all :-D
But, here's a point of view saying no hike in September. I thought I'd pass it along 'cause I don't give a lot of love to the non-hike people ...
Any bolding is mine
- Most viewed today's news of China devaluing their currency as a sign the US now will keep rates at 0%
- The Fed's favorite measure of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) core reading. This excludes the volatile food/energy components. The target rate is 2% and it came in at just 1.29% last month. In other words, inflation isn't a worry and there is no need to increase rates.
- The 10-year break-even inflation rate, which measures expected inflation derived from the U.S. 10-year treasury note yield and the treasury inflation-protected securities yield. It is down near the lows of March currently. Yet again, this is a clue that inflation expectations are very low and there could be little reason for the Fed to raise rates next month.
- Lastly, look at what real money is saying. Utilities are quietly the leading group this quarter! Remember, they tend to trade like bonds, so inversely with rates. Money seems to think rates could stay low, even though every economist thinks higher rates are coming. I side with real money every time.
Full article is here., check it out for more details, charts etc.