There were two trades on the Scottish referendum.
One saw fast-money pile into bets the referendum would fail in the 5 days leading up to the results. The other saw real money accounts cowering in fear and pulling money out of the pound in the three weeks before the decision.
Whenever you get that kind of dynamic it creates some amazing opportunities. Real money will always overwhelm traders in the bigger picture but in the short-term traders can drive the market. But for the most part it means that you’re trading against scared real money rather than other traders.
What happened on Thursday/Friday was fast-money piling in and then rushing to the exits. That trade is virtually over now but I get the sense that real money is slower to return. Those accounts don’t have the same kind of urgency they did on the way out but there will be an undercurrent of GBP buying as they return.
That could mean we see a few more days like today with 50-70 pip gains or some slower 20-pip days but it’s a tailwind for the pound. If there was some kind of catalyst to accelerate the process (Carney perhaps?) it could accelerate the move.
GBPUSD daily chart