If there is any currency worth shorting against the USD then its the JPY in my view and today’s price action has encouraged me to have a dip at 81.20.
I think that EUR/USD will struggle to maintain gains on the 1.44 handle; USD/CHF has stalled twice around 84.60 and whilst still bearish, it’s showing signs of having done enough for the moment; and even the teflon AUD has been losing its shine in recent weeks and is a sell-rallies proposition in my view.
When I combine this ‘logic’ with the fact that there are supposedly very large bids at regular intervals on the 80 handle and that China has supposedly been busy buying dips, then I’m willing to take a punt on a long USD/JPY trade at current levels. I don’t (as usual) have any fixed stop-loss on it but if prices were to fall 100 pips from here then I’m definitely wrong and will exit. I’m hoping that if the bulls can re-test and break the 200-day MA at 82.65, then we’ll see a massive rally. Well you gotta have a plan.