Latest IMF forecasts now out
- +3.6% in 2017 vs +3.8% prev
- US 2016 GDP +2.6% vs +2.8%
- China 2016 GDP +6.3% unchanged but sharp downturn in imports/exports weigh on emerging markets
- Russia -1.0% vs -0.6% prev
Take this with whatever respect you give the IMF but it's yet another indication that all is not well out there and will continue for some time yet.
Says the IMF
- Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO), especially in emerging market and developing economies.
- In advanced economies, a modest and uneven recovery is expected to continue, with a gradual further narrowing of output gaps. The picture for emerging market and developing economies is diverse but in many cases challenging. The slowdown and rebalancing of the Chinese economy, lower commodity prices, and strains in some large emerging market economies will continue to weigh on growth prospects in 2016-17. The projected pickup in growth in the next two years-despite the ongoing slowdown in China-primarily reflects forecasts of a gradual improvement of growth rates in countries currently in economic distress, notably Brazil, Russia, and some countries in the Middle East, though even this projected partial recovery could be frustrated by new economic or political shocks.
- Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate to ongoing adjustments in the global economy: a generalized slowdown in emerging market economies, China's rebalancing, lower commodity prices, and the gradual exit from extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions in the United States. If these key challenges are not successfully managed, global growth could be derailed.
Full report here