NFP is estimated to rise by 180K in August. Down from an above trend 255K last month
The US employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, with estimates calling for 180K new non farm payroll jobs. The Unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 4.8% after a tick up to 4.9% last month. There is lots of rumblings that the August report tends to get revised up. Last month traders and analysts were saying the report was overstated because of seasonal. This month they already have the August report being revised next month when the September report is released. Aren't seasonal's adjusted from time to time to reflect changes in seasonals?
Some other thoughts
- The most jobs this year have been in the Educ and Health sector (call it health care). This has been the trend for a number of years as the Baby Boomer age (among other things). The next highest sector is professionals and business. Manufacturing and Mining (oil industry) are negative this year. Construction is sluggish at only 55K in all of 2016. Not much in the way of goods producing jobs in 2016. All jobs are in the "service" industries.
- The YoY Avg hourly earnings are up to 2.6%.. In 2006-2007 the low was 2.7%. The highs were in the +4.0%. So good and bad but the trend is better.
- The link between ADP and Private payrolls has broken down. The last two months had private sector jobs greater than ADP by 111K in total. In May, the difference was the other way with ADP at 180K while private payroll was near 0K. This month ADP came in at 177K. Do we care?
- ISM employment for manufacturing came in below 50 at 48.3. With Manufacturing jobs for 2016 at -15K for the year, are we surprised? I am more surprised it has been above 50 any time this year. Service ISM has not been released yet.
Below are the trends for the US employment through the July report
