Preview of the Australian August employment data due at 0130GMT on Wednesday 10 September 2015
Employment Change for August:
- expected +5K, prior +37.9K
Unemployment Rate:
- expected 6.2%, prior 6.3%
Full Time Employment Change,
- prior was +12.2K
Part Time Employment Change,
- prior was +25.6K
Participation Rate,
- expected is 65.0%, prior was 65.1%
-
OK ... so far so dry ... . Here's where it gets interesting.
Yesterday we got Revisions to Australian employment data
The revisions mean that today's unemployment rate may be much, much higher than the market consensus at 6.2%
Peter Martin (this is the journo who got the word on both RBA hikes this year and didn't ring false alarms at the other times ... i.e. he is worth paying attention to)
Prepare to be shocked. On Thursday the Bureau of Statistics is likely to tell us that the unemployment rate has scaled new heights, climbing from 6.3 per cent to as much as 6.5 per cent.
If it happens, unemployment will have hit a 13-year high.
Got that?
OK.
But ... he goes on:
But the jump won't all be real.
Its all to do with new rules for unemployment benefits, and its all fairly convoluted. I won't go into it here (more at the article if you're interested)
Despite the heads up for a shock in the data today, the AUD will be hit if the u/e rate does come in at 6.5%. But, it should settle quickly afterwards. Take extra care today.
I'll get back with some levels as we approach release time.