After the surprise trade surplus in November expectations are for another today

  • Trade balance: expected Y 535.0bn, prior was Y 112.2bn
  • Trade balance (adjusted): expected Y 276.7bn, prior was Y 364.1bn
  • Exports y/y: expected +10.0%, prior was +16.2%
  • Imports y/y: expected +12.4%, prior was +17.2%

November was the sixth consecutive trade surplus month and exports had their twelfth consecutive month of growth.

OK, for December, preview via Nomura.

The bank is expecting the growth rate for December exports to be lower than in November.

And for imports too.

We forecast

  • export growth of 9.6% y-o-y
  • and import growth of 11.2% y-o-y in December

The bank says

changes that are likely to have been applied to forex rates and crude oil prices in the last 10 days of the month weighed on growth in nominal imports and exports in the last 10 days more than in the first 20 days

For the 'headline:

We estimate a trade surplus (original series) of

  • JPY598.7bn
  • and a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of JPY136.0bn

Nomura also note

  • Adjusting our December nominal export and import estimates for inflation, based on corporate goods price index data for December (export prices up 2.3% y-o-y, import prices up 7.1% y-o-y), and seasonality, results in a real export estimate of -3.1% m-o-m and real import estimate of -0.1% m-o-m.
  • We expect a decline in real exports in December, but a solid increase of 1.7% q-o-q in October-December.

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As I previously noted, the data is not likely to have to much of an immediate FX impact (barring a big surprise - better exports and imports should be a yen positive).