TOKYO (MNI) – Economists have revised up their fiscal 2011 growth
and inflation forecasts for Japan but they are slightly more cautious
about the following year amid heightened global uncertainties, the
latest monthly survey by the Cabinet Office’s Economic Planning
Association released on Thursday showed.
The association polled 42 economists and research institutions from
Nov. 24 to Dec. 1, with 41 answering on the growth and the inflation
outlook and 40 on the BOJ’s monetary policy stance.
The previous survey was conducted from Oct. 27 to Nov. 4.
In the near term, economists expect a 0.67% annualized GDP growth
rate in the October-December quarter, a sharp downward revision from
their previous average forecast for a 2.09% rise.
But going forward, economists on average project a 0.36% rise in
real GDP in fiscal 2011 ending on March 31, 2012, revised up from +0.24%
in the previous survey.
By contrast, economists on average project a 2.02% rise in real GDP
in fiscal 2012, revised down slightly from +2.22% in the previous survey.
Forecasts for prices were little changed, with mild deflation
expected to continue through at least early 2013.
The survey showed that the average forecast for core CPI (excluding
perishables) in fiscal 2011 was put at -0.09%, up from -0.12% in the
previous survey, while core CPI for fiscal 2012 is seen at -0.18%,
unchanged from previous estimate.
Economists on average expect consumer prices to show a 0.21% rise
in fiscal 2013, revised up from +0.18% last month. It would be the first
annual increase in five years since +1.2% in fiscal 2008.
The survey also showed that 21 economists predict a further credit
easing by the Bank of Japan in coming months, up from 18 last month.
Meanwhile, 19 economists expect the BOJ to start unwinding its
powerful monetary easing in November next year onward, down from 21 in
the previous survey.
tokyo@marketnews.com
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