Final GDP data for Q3 and BoP numbers for October

GDP (seasonally adjusted), final, q/q: 0.3% ... a miss compared to the preliminary

  • expected 0.5%, preliminary was 0.5%

GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted), final y/y: 1.3% ... big miss

  • expected 2.3%, preliminary was -2.2%

GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted), final q/q: 0.1% miss

  • expected 0.2%, preliminary 0.2%

GDP Deflator y/y, final: -0.2% miss

  • expected -0.1%, preliminary -0.1%

GDP Consumer Spending (aka private Consumption) y/y, 0.3% beat

  • expected 0.1%, preliminary 0.1%

GDP Business Spending y/y, -0.4% ... huge miss

  • expected +0.2%, preliminary 0.0%

Bad misses nearly across the board, at least private consumption steps up though (accounts for roughly 60% of the economy).

Preliminary was revised down, mainly due to lowering the initial estimates of capital expenditure and inventories

  • Capital expenditure fell 0.4% in the quarter (preliminary estimate was flat)
  • Steel and real estate companies reduced investment
  • Inventories subtracted 0.3%

Note (via Reuters reporting):

  • The government adopted a new base year for calculating gross domestic product that led to changes in previous data and made forecasting revised third-quarter GDP more difficult, economists said
  • The new calculation method, which will include research and development in capital expenditure for the first time, has been applied to GDP data going back to 1994.

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ps. For the Q2 data (i.e. prior), see here: A big beat for GDP, but check out the inflation measure (deflator) ... a notable miss.

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Also, BoP data out simultaneously

BoP Current Account Balance for October, ¥ 1719.9B

  • expected ¥ 1545.0B, prior ¥ 1821.0B

BoP Current Account Adjusted: ¥ 1928.9B

  • expected ¥ 1716.5B, prior ¥ 1477.3B

Trade Balance BoP Basis: ¥ 587.6B

  • expected ¥ 603.0B, prior ¥ 642.4B