Japanese national CPI data is expected to show core way below the BOJ target of 2%

National CPI y/y for August: %

  • expected 1.1%, prior was 0.9%

National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food: %

  • expected 0.9%, prior was 0.8%

National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y: % (this is the one closest to US core CPI)

  • expected 0.4%, prior was 0.3%

The data is unlikely to be too much of a yen mover when it is released, but will feed in eventually. Previews are brief only, no one expecting too much, no one getting to focused on the data:

via

Barclays:

  • We expect core CPI inflation to strengthen to 1.0% y/y for the first time since February, albeit due largely to higher energy costs linked to rising oil prices. The CPI ex-perishables and energy ("BoJ core") continues to lack momentum.

Scotiabank:

  • likely to continue to show headline around 1% y/y and hence half of the target, while core ex-fresh food lies under 1% and CPI excluding food and energy is likely to remain in the low tenths of a percentage point in year-over-year terms.