By Yasuhiko Seki
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s hub ports are open for shipments to the world
as they survived the killer earthquake unscathed, but analysts warned
that exports of cars, TVs and memory chips will be hit by the lingering
power shortage sparked by the country’s worst nuclear crisis.
Yokohama Customs said Yokohama Port, which it oversees , resumed
operations on March 14, three days after the quake, and is maintaining
regular operations. Yokohama Port handles 19.2% of Japan’s container
shipments
Of its jurisdictional area, six customs ports, mainly in Miyagi and
Fukushima prefectures, remained shut as the quake and high tsunami waves
swept through fishing ports and farmlands along Japan’s northeast
Pacific coast on March 11.
Tokyo Customs said all operations under its oversight at Narita
International Airport have been operating as normal since March 14 as
well.
A spokesman for Yokohama Customs and a spokeswoman for Tokyo
Customs declined to disclose the latest situation of their trading
volumes.
“Releasing qualitative information about our day-to-day
customs-cleared shipment trend may mislead people,” said a spokeswoman
for Tokyo Customs.
“We should be able to make in-depth and objective analysis of the
impact of the earthquake once trade statistics are out,” said the
spokeswoman.
The Ministry of Finance said it will release trade statistics for
the first 10-days of March on March 30 and the first 20-days of March on
April 8, as scheduled previously.
Combined shipments at ports in the quake-hit Tohoku area in the
northern mainland accounted for less than 5% of total shipments in
Japan, according to 2005 data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transport and Tourism.
Private-sector analysts also downplayed the significance of a
lasting and direct impact of the killer earthquake on the nation’s
economic activity.
“Looking back on economic data after the Great Hanshin Earthquake
in 1995, the earthquake only had its adverse impact on the month of
January, and consumption and output staged an immediate recovery from
the following month,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at
Norinchukin Research Institute Ltd.
“Any physical damage at factories as well as impaired distribution
networks can be restored eventually, as history indicates,” he said.
The Great Hanshin Earthquake, which killed more than 6,000 people,
caused direct damage of Y9.9 trillion and indirect damage of Y2.6
trillion in Hyogo Prefecture in western Japan, whose gross domestic
product stood at Y19.5 trillion based on 2005 data.
GDP of Miyagi Prefecture, the epicenter of this month’s quake,
totaled Y8.5 trillion, while that of quake-hit Iwate and Fukushima
prefectures stood at Y4.5 and Y7.9 trillion respectively, according to
the 2005 data.
The government compiled a total of Y3 trillion in supplementary
budgets in 1995 to help reconstruct the quake-hit western Japan.
The government said Tueday that at least three supplementary
budgets will likely be needed to pay for reconstruction this time.
On Monday, the World Bank said reconstruction could cost up to $235
billion.
Japan’s real GDP growth quickened to 2.3% in fiscal 1995 and 2.9%
in fiscal 1996 from 1.5% in fiscal 1994.
Still, some economists warned of downside risks to the Japanese
economy in the longer term, as the acute power shortage has emerged as a
major stumbling block.
“While I’m not worried about the functionality of Japanese ports as
export bases, I’m becoming more pessimistic about the outlook for the
Japanese economy, given the depth of power problems,” said Taro Saito,
chief economist at NLI Research Institute.
“Time can heal the damaged plants or roads, but the power shortage
may last for a longer period of time, given growing allergy to nuclear
power plants,” he added.
Prime Minister Naoto Kan said on Monday that he now sees “the light
at the end of the tunnel” amid Japan’s worst nuclear radiation crisis,
as nuclear power technicians managed to connect power cables to all six
reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant on the northeast Pacific coast.
But Tokyo Electric Power Co, the operator of the Fukushima plant,
resumed rotating blackouts on Tuesday, due to continued supply shortage
in the metropolitan area.
TEPCO said the measure will last until the end of April, adding
that it may take similar action or expanded power outages rotated among
its five grids in order to meet peak-time consumption in the summer.
Norinchukin’s Minami also agreed to the view of NLI’s Saito.
“Unless Japan can resolve the power shortage problem in eastern
Japan, manufacturers may shift their production bases more to western
parts of Japan in the best case scenario and outside of Japan in the
worst case scenario,” Minami said.
“If this happens, Japan’s economy will languish over a long period
of time,” he said.
As Japan attempts to save energy, Yoshiaki Takagi, Minister for
Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, urged Ryozo Kato,
the commissioner of Japan’s professional base ball group, to suspend
holding night games for the time being.
tokyo@marketnews.com
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