Japan will ease back into it next week - on Tuesday! Monday is another holiday.
Rabobank are looking for USD/JPY at 110 in six month (previously at 108)
They make some worthwhile points:
- the more accommodative policy stance of the majority of central banks this year has reassured investors and dimmed demand for the safe haven JPY
see risks on the horizon
- our view that the US economy could dip into technical recession in the latter half of 2020
- Despite some reassurance from the Eurozone Q1 GDP release, forward looking indicators has thrown up some worrying signs for Q2. While the German and Japanese consumers continue to derive support from strong employment levels both their externals sectors have been weak reflecting weaker elsewhere and most particularly in China.
- S.Korea has also suffered from weak export demand as a consequent of weakness in the Chinese market
- Additionally there is scope that populism will complicate the outlook for the EU parliamentary elections later this month and that UK politics will remain in turmoil in the wake of the Brexit debacle. In balance we see the potential for this environment to lend some safe haven support to the JPY in the coming months, but see scope for gains to be limited