When I joined the FX market in late 1986, cable was trading around 1.5500 I believe. Since then it has traded with plenty of volatility but it nearly always returns to levels near 1.60 and then stagnates. Events over the last 12 months do little to dispel the notion that the FX market is, over time, one great big range trade (with the possible exception of the Yen).
- EUR/USD opened this morning at 1.3115 which is almost exactly where it opened 12 months ago today
- Cable opened this morning just above 1.5600, which is 100 pips higher than the open on 21/12/11
- USD/CHF has had a hugely volatile year yet it was at .9650 12 months ago, and is now ‘only’ 350 pips away from there
- USD/JPY is a big mover strangely enough, yet this is the one strong trend of the last 30 years, an ever strengthening Yen. Last December 21st it was at 83.50 and today it’s opened below 78.00
- 12 months ago, AUD/USD was trading just below 1.0000 and today its trading just above 1.0100