KC Fed manufacturing index

KC Fed manufacturing index

This is a low-tier indicator but one area of concern is the 'backlog of new orders' which has fallen to -20.

The comments in the survey reflect some pessimism overall but also talk about tightness in the jobs market and salary increases for entry-level workers.

"A considerable amount of company time is spent on searching and recruiting employees. Turnover is very high for the unskilled workers seeking employment, which means we are spending a lot of time and money on initial training... availability of reliable and skilled labor is almost at crisis level and is delaying our plans to grow, which makes looking outside the U.S. for products we currently manufacture more inevitable. We are also looking to automate processes, but our relatively low volume and high variety of products make automation unlikely."

However it's not entirely widespread as a special question in the survey asked about labor in short supply. 62% reported it was but that was down from 77% in the July survey. A question on wage growth was also less severe.