WASHINGTON (MNI) – Following are key excerpts of prepared remarks
on the U.S. Economic Outlook by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to
the Economic Club of Minnesota 2011-2012 Season Inaugural Luncheon
Thursday:

MONETARY POLICY

– The Federal Reserve will certainly do all that it can to help
restore high rates of growth and employment in a context of price
stability.

– In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve
has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary
stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at
our August meeting. My FOMC colleagues and I will continue to consider
those and other pertinent issues, including, of course, economic and
financial developments, at our meeting in September and are prepared to
employ these tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic
recovery in a context of price stability.

– The statement following the meeting indicated that economic
conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued
outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through
mid-2013. That is, in what the Committee judges to be the most likely
scenarios for resource utilization and inflation in the medium term, the
target for the federal funds rate would be held at its current low level
for at least two more years.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

– I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy
to be materially affected by the financial crisis and the recession
if–and I stress if–our country takes the necessary steps to secure
that outcome.

– With commodity prices coming off their highs and manufacturers
problems with supply chains well along toward resolution, growth in the
second half looks likely to pick up.

– However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent
factors also have been holding back the recovery. Consequently, as noted
in its statement following the August meeting, the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over
coming quarters than it did at the time of the June meeting, with
greater downside risks to the economic outlook.

– One striking aspect of the recovery is the unusual weakness in
household spending.

– Even taking into account the many financial pressures they face,
households seem exceptionally cautious. Indeed, readings on consumer
confidence have fallen substantially in recent months as people have
become more pessimistic about both economic conditions and their own
financial prospects.

– Compared with the household sector, the business sector generally
presents a more upbeat picture.

– Although banking and financial conditions in the United States
have improved significantly since the depths of the crisis, financial
stress continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and
abroad. This drag has become particularly evident in recent months, as
bouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have reemerged in
reaction to concerns about European sovereign debts and related strains
as well as developments associated with the U.S. fiscal situation,
including last months downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by
one of the major ratings agencies and the recent controversy surrounding
the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge
how much these events and the associated financial volatility have
affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that
they have hurt household and business confidence, and that they pose
ongoing risks to growth.

INFLATION

– Inflation is expected to moderate in the coming quarters as these
transitory influences wane. In particular, the prices of oil and many
other commodities have either leveled off or have come down from their
highs. Meanwhile, the step-up in automobile production should reduce
pressure on car prices. Importantly, we see little indication that the
higher rate of inflation experienced so far this year has become
ingrained in the economy. Longer-term inflation expectations have
remained stable according to the indicators we monitor.

Given the large share of labor costs in the production costs of
most firms, subdued unit labor costs should be an important restraining
influence on inflation.

FISCAL DRAG

– While the weakness of the housing sector and continued financial
volatility are two key reasons for the frustratingly slow pace of the
recovery, other factors also may restrain growth in coming quarters. For
example, state and local governments continue to tighten their belts by
cutting spending and reducing payrolls in the face of ongoing budgetary
pressures, and federal fiscal stimulus is being withdrawn. There is
ample room for debate about the appropriate size and role for the
government in the longer term, but– in the absence of adequate demand
from the private sector–a substantial fiscal consolidation in the
shorter term could add to the headwinds facing economic growth and
hiring.

– Fortunately, the two goals–achieving fiscal sustainability,
which is the result of responsible policies set in place for the longer
term, and avoiding creation of fiscal headwinds for the recovery–are
not incompatible. Acting now to put in place a credible plan for
reducing future deficits over the long term, while being attentive to
the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term,
can help serve both objectives.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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