We’re coming to the sharp end of the World Cup and correctly kicking a bag of air from 12 yards can mean the difference between magical success and abject failure.
Hours and hours of play can come down to 10 or 12 final kicks to decide a team and country’s fate so it’s no surprise to find that penalty kicks have been analysed to the nth degree.
Ignacio Palacious-Huerta has been studying penalties since 1995 and in his book, Beautiful Game Theory: How Soccer Can Help Economics he puts his analysis of decision making in sport into economics. He has a database of around 11,000 kicks and has tried to sell his findings to football clubs.
There are some very big stakes in football these days both monetary and prestigious so analysis is becoming a big part.
There’s an element of his findings that can apply to trading. Much like taking penalties the same side of the goal or keepers diving the same way, we too can have a bias towards long and short trading. Do you find that when you look at a trade your first thought is always from a particular direction? Is it then harder to trade the other way?
The FTSE have an article pertaining to his analysis of players currently at the World Cup so if’ you like a bet then the detail may give you a heads up for any penalties. It’s gated but open on a free sub