Look for RBNZ hike in Q1 – Credit Agricole

The RBNZ decision is due on Thursday (Wed afternoon in US).

While a collection of domestic economic indicators support a further rise in the OCR beyond 3.50% this week, uncertainty surrounding the external outlook will dominate RBNZ thinking preventing such a move. As such neither we, nor the consensus look for an RBNZ move.

Indeed market pricing for a Q1 OCR rise has moderated somewhat in line with a similar moderation in both Chinese and Australian data. This moderation in the RBNZ profile need not undermine NZD however.

Indeed on a relative basis, NZD is one of the few G10 peripherals supported by a consistently ascending 2015 rate profile. In this respect Q4 employment data will be key.

If (as leading indicators suggest) employment will improve by a similar margin to that seen during Q3, then internal price pressures should easily dominate external concerns facilitating an end-Q1 OCR rise.

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