— See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, are
expected to post the first drop in three months in August, down 2.5% on
month after. +4.6% in July, in light of global slowdown and fading
effects of fiscal programs on domestic demand.

Economists said business investment plans remain solid, thanks to
pent-up demand for upgrading production facilities, but they also warned
that firms are becoming cautious amid the strong yen, the European debt
crisis and the slowdown in China, the largest market for Japanese
exports.

The Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey showed that capital
investment by major firms are projected to rise 6.4% in the current
fiscal year, little changed from +6.2% seen in the June survey.

Producer prices as seen in the domestic corporate goods price index
(CGPI) is forecast to have posted a sixth consecutive year-on-year fall
in September, with the pace of decline slowing to -1.4% from -1.8% in
August as commodity prices and electricity charges are picking up.

The Bank of Japan’s overseas commodity index — composed of 17
items including crude oil, copper, gold, wheat and beef — rose 6.1% on
year in September, compared with -5.7% in August.

Meanwhile, the current account surplus for August is expected to
have shrunk on year for 18 months in a row, as the trade deficit is seen
continuing due mainly to slower overseas demand.

Tuesday, Oct. 9, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Monday): The Ministry of
Finance releases the August current account balance. Forecast: a surplus
of Y423.8 billion, down 3.0% on year. The trade balance will show a
deficit worth Y632.5 billion, compared with a deficit of Y848.1 billion
in August 2011, and the income balance will be in surplus by Y1.363
trillion, up 0.7% on year.

Thursday, Oct. 11, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Cabinet
Office releases August machinery orders. Forecast for core orders, which
exclude volatile demand from electric utilities and for ships: -2.5% on
month, which would be the first fall in three months after +4.6% in July
and +5.6% in June.

Friday, Oct. 12, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The Bank of Japan
releases September corporate goods price index (CGPI). Forecast: -1.4%
y/y, a sixth straight y/y drop after -1.8% in August and -2.2% in July.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-6860-4823 **

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