— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese housing starts are expected to have risen by
10.0% on year, marking the fifth consecutive y/y increases, according to
the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Market News International.
Housing starts showed +17.7% in September, +20.5% in August, +4.3%
in July and +0.6% in June.
On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, housing starts are
expected to have totaled 841,000 units in October, improving from
837,000 in September and 829,000 in August.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will
release the data at 1400 JST (0500 GMT) on Tuesday, Nov. 30.
Economists said housing starts are boosted by the recent low
interest rates and the government’s tax credits for housing loans.
Condominiums, put on sale in the Tokyo metropolitan area, posted a
firm 9.8% gain in October, resulting in increases for nine straight
months, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute.
Also, housing permits by the land ministry, which is seen as a
leading indicator for housing starts, rose 14.9% y/y in September,
showing gains for 11 straight months.
Looking ahead, Akiko Kosugi, economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research
Institute, said a gradual pickup in housing starts is expected to
continue, thanks to improvement in the condominium sales and the
positive impact of government’s measures prompting purchases of houses.
But she added housing starts will likely remain at low levels for a
time being because the pace of recovery in employment and wages will be
slow.
Research Institute of Construction and Economy, an affiliate of the
land ministry, forecast housing starts will total 882,000 units in
fiscal 2011, improving only slightly from an estimated 824,000 units in
the current fiscal year.
Housing starts hit a recent bottom of 775,000 units in fiscal 2009.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]