— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese housing starts are expected to have risen
0.3% on year in March, marking the 10th consecutive monthly y/y
increase, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by
Market News International.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will
release the data at 1400 JST (0500 GMT) on Thursday, April 28.
Housing starts rose 10.1% on year in February, 2.7% in January,
7.5% in December and 6.8% in November.
On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, housing starts appeared
to have totaled 830,000 units in March, down from 872,000 in February
and posting the lowest level since 821,000 seen in October 2010.
Economists expect March housing starts to post a decline or only a
slight gain from a year earlier in light of building material shortages
caused by the need to rebuild northeastern areas hit by the March 11
earthquake disaster.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment has been dampened by fears of
continued radiation leaks from the quake-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
power plant and power shortages in eastern Japan.
Looking ahead, Akiko Kosugi, economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research
Institute, said, “Housing starts will likely remain weak until
the reconstruction of the quake-hit area starts in a full-fledged
manner.”
Housing starts are expected to rise 3.8% to 852,000 units in fiscal
2011, the Research Institute of Construction and Economy said on
Tuesday, revising down its previous quarterly forecast for +9.9% at
898,900.
After the Great Hanshin Earthquake hit western Japanese port city
of Kobe on Jan. 17, 1995, housing investment, as measured in GDP data,
slumped by 2.2% q/q in the first quarter of 1995, -3.6% in Q2 and -3.4%
in Q3.
But housing investment rebounded afterward, up 2.8% in Q4 of 1995,
+5.3% in Q1 of 1996 and +5.5% in Q2.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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