— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a current account
surplus of Y235.4 billion in November, down 75.4% on year, a ninth
straight y/y decline after -62.4% in October, -21.4% in September and
-63.4% in August, according to the median forecast of economists
surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Thursday, Jan. 12 (2350 GMT on Wednesday).

The expected large decline in the current account surplus is due to
a worsening trade account balance.

In November, the trade account balance is expected to have posted a
deficit of Y599.9 billion, showing deficits for two months in a row, due
to slowing of the overseas economy and the strong yen.

The trade balance in the current account is based on FOB (free on
board) for both exports and imports.

Japan’s trade balance on a custom-cleared basis — FOB for exports
and CIF (cost, insurance and freight) for imports — showed a deficit of
Y687.6 billion in November, compared with a surplus worth Y157.6 billion
a year before, as imports surged 11.4% y/y while exports fell 4.5%,
according to the MOF.

In November, exports of semiconductors. audio visual equipments and
steel fell, while imports of liquefied natural gas and crude oil rose,
compared with a year earlier.

Many of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors remained shut for routine
maintenance or due to the March earthquake disaster, promoting more
purchases of fossil fuels used at thermal power plants.

Meanwhile, the surplus in the income account, the largest component
of the current account balance, is estimated at Y991.6 billion in
November, up 20.0%, posting a eighth consecutive y/y rise.

Thecurrent account surplus is expected to total around Y9.9
trillion in this fiscal year ending Mar. 31, down sharply from Y16.1
trillion in the fiscal year 2010, according to the government’s economic
projection released in December.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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