— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese industrial production may post the first
month-on-month fall in two months, down 0.8% in November, after +2.2% in
October and -3.3% in September, according to the median forecast of
analysts surveyed by Market News International.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will release the data
at 0850 JST on Wednesday, Dec. 28 (2350 GMT Tuesday).
Economists said a November output rise will be worse than a 0.1%
fall forecast by the METI and attributed the expected November drop to
slowing in overseas economies amid the European sovereign debt crisis,
the strong yen and flooding in Thailand.
Recent data indicate that November output will deteriorate from
October.
Domestic crude steel production in November was down 3.2% y/y, with
a pace of decline accelerating from -0.3% in October. Also, The Bank of
Japan says its November real export index dropped a seasonally adjusted
2.7% m/m, posting the second consecutive monthly m/m fall, after -4.6%
in October and +3.4% in September.
Also, the Bank of Japan revised down its assessment on output after
its policy-setting meeting on Dec. 20-21, saying production has
“remained more or less flat.” It said production has “continued to
increase” in November.
Hiroshi Shiraishi, senior economist at BNP Paribas, said industrial
output is expected to weaken further, due to worsening in overseas
economies.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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