— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a current account
surplus of Y496.5 billion in October, down 66.8% on year, an eighth
straight y/y decline after -21.4% in September and -63.4% in August,
according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Market News
International.
The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Thursday, Dec. 8 (2350 GMT on Wednesday).
The expected larger decline in the current account surplus is due
to a worsening trade account balance.
In October, the trade account balance is expected to have posted a
deficit of Y192.9 billion after marking a surplus of Y373.2 billion in
September.
The trade balance in the current account is based on FOB (free on
board) for both exports and imports.
Japan’s trade balance on a custom-cleared basis — FOB for exports
and CIF (cost, insurance and freight) for imports — showed a deficit of
Y280.2 billion in October, compared with a surplus worth Y812.6 billion
a year before, as imports surged 17.9% y/y while exports fell 3.8%,
according to the MOF.
In October, exports of semiconductors and ships fell while imports
of crude oil and liquefied natural gas soared from a year earlier.
Many of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors remained shut for routine
maintenance or due to the March earthquake disaster, promoting more
purchases of fossil fuels used at thermal power plants.
Meanwhile, the surplus in the income account, the largest component
of the current account balance, is estimated at Y1.085 trillion in
October, up 16.4%, posting a seventh consecutive y/y rise.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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