— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Combined investment in equipment (including software)
by non-financial firms in Japan is expected to have shrunk 4.3% on year
in July-September, posting the second straight y/y fall, following -7.8%
in Q2 and +3.0% in Q1, according to the median forecast of economists
surveyed by Market News International.
The Ministry of Finance will release Q3 capex figures as part of
its quarterly business survey at 0850 JST on Friday, Dec. 2 (2350 GMT
Thursday), the key to calculating revisions to Q3 GDP.
The Cabinet Office will release revised GDP data for July-September
on Friday, Dec. 9, after taking into account the demand side of capex
and private-sector inventory changes based on the MOF survey.
Some economists forecast Q3 business investment in the will show
improvement from Q2 data.
The projection for Q3 business investment in equipment (excluding
software) released by the Construction Research Institute, which has a
close correlation with the MOF data, showed a 3.7% y/y drop in Q3, with
the pace of decline decelerating from -6.2% in Q2.
Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset
Management, forecast Q3 capex will fall 4.7% y/y in the MOF data, saying
if his forecast is met, capital investment in revised Q3 GDP would show
no change from the preliminary reading.
In the preliminary data released on Nov. 14, Q3 GDP rose a real
1.5% q/q (annualized +6.0%), with capex up 1.1% q/q (annualized +4.4%).
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Q3 capital spending (excluding
software) in the MOF data is forecast by economists to have risen 4.0%
from the previous quarter, posting the first gain in four quarters,
following -6.6% q/q in Q2, -1.9% in Q1, -0.4% in Q4 of 2010 and +0.6% in
Q3 last year.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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