— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.
The March trade balance will likely indicate a slight improvement
in the global economic picture, with the y/y fall in exports narrowing
to just 0.1% from -2.7% in February and -9.2% in January. Ships,
semiconductors and steel products appear to have led the slight drop in
exports last month.
Imports in March are expected to have risen y/y, following +9.2% in
February and +9.5% in January, due to increases in imports of crude oil
and liquefied natural gas.
The March trade balance is expected to have shown the first deficit
in two months, following a surplus of Y29.4 billion in February.
If the March forecast is actually met, the trade balance in fiscal
2011 is expected to show a record deficit of Y4.5 trillion, surpassing
the Y3.1 trillion shortfall recorded in fiscal 1979, a result of the
second oil shock.
The February tertiary industry index is expected to show the first
m/m gain in two months, thanks to sharp increases in auto sales
stimulated by a revival of subsidies for purchases of
environmentally-friendly cars.
Thursday, Apr. 19, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Finance releases the March trade balance. Forecast: a deficit of Y226.3
billion, compared with a surplus of Y170.9 bln for the same month 2011.
Friday, Apr. 20, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases February tertiary industry index.
Forecast: +0.5% on the month, following -1.7% in January and +1.8% in
December.
skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]