- US existing home sales unexpectedly rise 5.1%
- Chicago Fed National Activity index rebounds to -2.83 in February from -3.74 in January
- Asset markets rise as PPIP plan well received, housing stronger, rebound in Chicago Fed NAI; commodities join rebound as reflation trade advances
- Weber; ECB has room to cut
- Orphanides: ECB exploring non-conventional means of ease
- BOE’s Blanchflower: More stimulus needed as unemployment surges
- Former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wien sees market bottom in q3, economic bottom in Q1 2010.
- Goldman may sell part of its ICBC stake to help pay back TARP
- Oil closes at $53.82, gold at $938 (session lows), CRB at 229.50, +1.5%
- S&P rises 7%
Tim Terrific! Asset markets rallied strongly today as the Obama administration ratcheted down tensions with Wall Street, mindful that they are going to need those Snideley Whiplash-types to partner with the government to buy some slightly odoriferous mortgage paper. They even assured investors there would be no salary cap like the government is trying to put on TARP recipients in arrears.
An unexpected bounce in US existing home sales poured fuel on the fire, as did a continued rally in commodities. Some are beginning to see stabilization in the economy if not the green-shoots of recovery. What cannot be denied is that unprecedented sums have been expended in recent months to shore-up the markets and the economy and dealers are becoming reluctant to fade that avalanche of cash.
The markets took some time to sort out the meaning of all this. EUR/USD fell during the US morning as the focus flipped from the risks associated with quantitative ease (mainly inflation) to a major recovery in US banking shares which lower the risks to the US government. Once the existing home sales data hit the tape, EUR/USD began to grind higher, retaking much of the ground lost during the morning. EUR range in New York 1.3486/1.3658
The reflation trade built as the day wore on. Equity markets led the way and dragged commodities, interest rates (to a very modest extent) and currencies along for the ride. “Risk” trades like EUR/JPY (130.86/132.57 range) and AUD/USD (0.6932/0.7058) were especially underpinned today with dollar direction somewhat muddled.
EUR/GBP was sold this morning on the banking bounce (the UK is the bad bank capital of the world, just ahead of Reykjavik) but that slide was blunted by Blanchflower”s dour UK economic outlook. (0.9283/0.9383).
EUR/JPY closed above the important support level at 131.05 (the former top of the six month range since last October) as risk appetites grew. Trichet said over the weekend to the Journal that the ECB would likely not buy government bonds like the Fed (since there is no European government, that makes sense). Dealers took that to mean that there will be no quantitative ease; most think there will be quantitative ease, it will just come via the massive purchase of commercial paper rather than sovereign debt.
AUD/USD and CAD closed on their highs as raw materials were in demand amid the rush to reflate.
The bottom line: The dollar is weakening but it is weakening for the right reasons today. Last week there was the erroneous fear that the Fed’s move to QE would lead to an automatic debasement of the dollar. Now the dollar easing as a result of investors feeling more comfortable accepting risk as the US financial system edges away from a precipice. Let’s hope we see a nice controled slide in the dollar for months to come and global asset markets rise from the dead.