New Zealand - ANZ Truckometer for August: -0.6% m/m (prior was -0.3%)

The ANZ Truckometer is a measure of economic activity using real-time traffic data from around New Zealand.

For 'heavy' vehicles: -0.6% m/m

• prior -0.3%

For 'light' also -0.6 % m/m

• prior was -0.2%

ANZ once again says their traffic gauges are indicating a flat economy

Key points:

The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index has declined in 7 of the last 8 months, but the falls have been mild and the level is holding up

• A loss of momentum is certainly now apparent, consistent with a weaker economy, but the index is not capitulating as it did in 2008
• The Heavy Traffic Index suggests a weak GDP growth outturn in Q2 , and has declined in the two subsequent months, which is not a great indicator for Q3 either.

The ANZ Light Traffic Index typically leads GDP by six months

• It also fell 0.6% in August and sits about where it was in January
• This year has seen the cessation of the strong upward trend that had been evident since mid- 2013
• The Light Traffic Index is more upbeat about growth in the near-term but growth in this index is now rolling over.