New Zealand data - ANZ Truckometer for May:

-1.1% m/m

  • prior was -0.5%, revised from -0.6%

The ANZ Truckometer is a measure of economic activity using real-time traffic data from around New Zealand

Heavy Traffic Index fell 1.1% in the month of May

  • Down 1.4 % in on a 3 month/3 month basis (seasonally adjusted)
  • Has fallen for 5 months in a row, says ANZ ... "that's unusual and flags a weaker economy ... . A clear dip in momentum is apparent"

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The ANZ Light Traffic Index leads GDP by six months

  • Fell 0.6% in May
  • Up 0. 4 % in the last three months versus the three months previous (sa)

More from ANZ:

  • While the Heavy Traffic Index suggests a respectable Q1 GDP outturn , with two of three months in, the signals for the second quarter are soft
  • Unless we see a large bounce-back in the June month, the index will predict a fall in GDP in Q2
  • Some of this is undoubtedly the impact of the drought and reduced agriculture production (though the late-season recovery was better than anticipated)
  • The Light Traffic Index is more upbeat but is also losing steam
  • Signals from our Truckometer reflect an economy facing strengthening headwinds. We can point to the obvious influences of Mother Nature but the story looks deeper than that. It's time for a rev-up courtesy of a cut in the Official Cash Rate.