Iowa caucus, manufacturing PMI

Next week is the 1st week of the calendar month, and with it will come the US and Canada jobs reports both schedule for Friday at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT.

A look at the major events and releases include:

Monday, February 3

  • The Iowa caucus gets the election season underway in the US
  • US ISM manufacturing PMI. Estimate 48.5 versus 47.8. New orders 47.7 versus 47.6 last month. Employment last month came in at 45.2

Tuesday, February 4

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia it is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% when they announce at 10:30 PM ET/0330 GMT. There is a 17.4% chance of a cut with chances of the cut rising to 45.7% in March. Keep rates unchanged will have traders focused on the comments and statement of
  • US factory orders for December. 10 AM ET/1500 GMT. Estimate 1.1% versus -01% last month. Ex transportation +0.1% versus +0.3%. Durable goods orders expected to rise by 2.4% which is unchanged from the preliminary report from January 28
  • New Zealand employment change will be released at 4:45 PM ET/945 GMT. The estimate for the 4th quarter is 0.3% increase versus 0.3% increase in the 3rd quarter. The unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.2%

Wednesday, February 5

  • US ADP employment change for January. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate 160 K versus 202K last month
  • US trade balance for December. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate $-47.8 billion versus $-43.1 billion in November
  • Canada trade balance for December. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate $-0.68 billion versus $-1.09 billion last month
  • ISM nonmanufacturing index for January. 10 AM ET/1500 GMT. Estimate 55.1 versus 54.9 last month

Thursday, February 6

  • Australia retail sales for December. 7:30 PM ET/0030 GMT. Estimate -0.2% versus +0.9%. Retail sales X inflation quarter on quarter 0.3% estimate versus -0.1%.
  • RBA Gov. low speaks/RBA monetary policy statement. Gov. Lowe speaks at 5:30 PM ET/2230 GMT. Monitor policy statement released at 7:30 PM ET/0030 GMT

Friday, February 7

  • US jobs report. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Nonfarm payroll expected to rise by 160K versus 145K last month. Unemployment rate 3.5% versus 3.5% last month. Average hourly earnings 0.3% versus 0.1% last month. Hourly earnings year on year 3.0% versus 2.9% last month
  • Canada employment report. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. The change in employment 17.5 K estimate versus 27.3 K last month. Unemployment rate 5.7% versus 5.6% last month. Full-time employment 33.9K last month. Part-time employment -6.5K

The earnings calendar has some key earnings that could affect equity prices:

Monday, February 3

  • Alphabet
  • Viacom

Tuesday, February 4

  • Cummings
  • Ford Motor
  • Chubb
  • Chipotle
  • McKesson
  • Twenty First Century Fox
  • Conoco Philips
  • Disney

Wednesday, February 5

  • O'Reilly automotive
  • Boston Scientific
  • Merck and Company
  • iRobot
  • General Motors
  • Qualcomm

Thursday, February 6

  • Yum Brands
  • Dunkin Brands
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb
  • Cigna
  • T-Mobile
  • Uber
  • Phillip Morris
  • Twitter
  • VeriSign

The coronavirus will likely continue to be a important story. The weekend numbers will likely have an influence on Monday.

Pres. Trump will present the State of the Union Address on Tuesday, February 4 at 9 PM ET/0200 GMT.