–Also U/Mich Consumer Confidence, Industrial Production, Inventories
By Kasra Kangarloo
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The next meeting of the Federal Open Market
Committee will be at the center of economic news in the week ahead, as a
weak August jobs report has turned up the pressure for additional
monetary stimulus.
The August employment report, though not disastrous, illustrates
the still-delicate state of the recovery, with lower-than-expected job
growth, significant downward revisions to the past two months and the
lowest labor force participation rate in three decades.
At the very least, markets are expecting an extension of the
committee’s “forward guidance” to apply additional pressure to long term
rates. At the upper end of the spectrum, hopes are for something with
far more heft — a third round of quantitative easing.
The statement from the Federal Open Market Committee will be
released Thursday at approximately 12:30 p.m. ET.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s quarterly news conference
is scheduled for Thursday at 2 p.m. ET. Fifteen minutes prior to the
start of Bernanke’s news conference, the Federal Reserve will also
release its udpate of FOMC quarterly economic projections.
The August retail sales report, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m.
ET, is expected to show modest improvement, though less than the
substantial upside surprise seen in the July data. Back-to-school
spending will likely drive the gains in August, though the increases in
the July report were broad-based.
Inflation data will also be released over the week, with outsized
effects from rising food and energy prices expected in all reports. Core
prices should continue at a subdued pace.
The August Consumer Price Index will be released Thursday at 8:30
a.m. ET, the August Producer Price Index will be released Friday at 8:30
a.m. ET, and the August import price index will be released Wednesday at
8:30 a.m. ET.
Consumer confidence reports will also be released over the week,
with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment report
for September due Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET and the IBD/TIPP economic
optimism report due Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Consumer confidence has remained fairly steady in spite of an
endless mix of economic news. The Conference Board’s August report,
however, did take a sizable hit due to dimished expectations, even as
the University of Michigan’s index held firm.
Other economic data to be released over the week include August
Industrial Production on Thursday at 9:15 a.m. ET, initial jobless
claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, July consumer credit on Monday at
3:00 p.m. ET, July JOLTs job openings on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, July
wholesale inventories on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, July business
inventories on Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the August National Federation
of Independent Businesses’ small business optimism index on Tuesday at
7:30 a.m. ET, and the August Treasury budget on Thursday at 2:00 p.m.
ET.
There are no Federal Reserve speakers ahead of the FOMC meeting.
— Kasra Kangarloo is a Washington reporter for Need to Know News
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$]