By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) — The week ahead will feature housing data,
consumer confidence surveys and regional manufacturing surveys.

The correlation between regional surveys over any given month is
inconsistent at best, so it is important not to take into account the
plunge in both the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire manufacturing index
and the Philadelphia Fed’s survey. Both indices showed a sharp drop over
the month of June, with the Philadelphia index falling even further into
negative territory.

Next week’s indices are forecast to remain more or less the same,
just above the key threshold indicating an expanding manufacturing
sector. The MNI Chicago purchasing managers index, to be released Friday
at 9:45 a.m. ET, may be the most important piece of data for the week,
as — out of all the regional surveys — it has the highest correlation
with the national Institute of Supply Managers index.

The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey will be released Monday at
10:30 a.m. ET and the Richmond Fed’s survey will be released Tuesday at
10:00 a.m. ET. The Kansas City Fed will also release its survey Thursday
at 11:00 a.m. ET and ISM Milwaukee index will be released Friday at
10:00 a.m. ET. All regional surveys are for the month of June.

Housing data for May will also be rounded out next week, with new
home sales and pending home sales to be released Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET
and Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, respectively. The S&P home price index
will also be released Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET.

New home sales have started to trend upwards in recent months,
though they are still well below levels seen pre-crisis, and before the
expiration of the government housing credit in May 2010. Pending home
sales are expected to tick upwards slightly, but will likely not
indicate anything short of continued, deep weaknesses in the housing
market.

Housing prices, in all likelihood, will also point in the direction
of continued weakness, as sales struggled to get off the ground.

The durable goods report will also be released during the week, and
is expected to show decent improvement after two straight months of
disappointment. The new orders segment of the national ISM index, which
indicates orders of manufactured goods, has shown relative strength in
recent reports, and could point to a surprise upside in May durables
orders.

The May durable goods report will be released Wednesday at 8:30
a.m. ET.

June consumer confidence reports by the Conference Board and the
University of Michigan will be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and
Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET, respectively. Though consumer confidence has
been surprisingly robust in the light of negative economic news — both
nationally and abroad — the preliminary University of Michigan report
showed an unexpected dip, and the Conference Board’s index has been
waning in recent months.

The final first quarter GDP report will be released Thursday at
8:30 a.m. ET, and is expected to show no change from the previous
estimate. Personal income will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and
is forecast to show another marginal increase.

In short, expect nothing spectacular from either of these reports.

Other data to be released over the week include the May Chicago
Federal Reserve national activity index Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial
jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Mortgage Bankers
Association’s mortgage applications survey Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve speeches over the week are listed below:

Cleveland Federal Reserve president Sandra Pianalto will speak on
housing in Cleveland, Ohio Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher will speak on
the economy in Aspen, Colorado Thursday at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren will speak on the
banking crisis in Amsterdam at 12:00 a.m. ET Friday.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard will speak on the
economy in Little Rock, Arkansas Friday at 9:05 a.m. ET.

–Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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