By Theresa Sheehan

PRINCETON (SMRA) – The November 29 week is capped by the release of
the employment data on Friday. Over the course of the week there is a
lot of economic data, but not much that will distract from the next
reading on unemployment and payrolls.

Next in importance will be the data on consumer spending as the
holiday shopping season approaches. The weekly numbers for retail
activity will move into higher focus until the post-Christmas shopping
period his complete after New Years.

The calendar timing means that most of the first-tier data is
packed into the last three days of the week.

The Economic Data

The Fed will release the Beige Book on Wednesday at 14:00 ET. This
is anecdotal evidence of economic conditions, and will complement the
hard numbers. It will cover the latter half of October and most of
November. The September 8 issue was consistent with a stalling recovery,
while the October 20 edition was somewhat more positive. The economic
data has been a bit more favorable in the intervening period, and we
expect that the reports from the respective Fed Districts will continue
to improve in the coming report. The Cleveland Fed seems the most
probable District to compile the report this time around.

The November employment report at 8:30 ET Friday will be the high
point of the week. At this writing the early Market News International
survey median is for an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 168,000.
Back-to-back months of solid gains in jobs would be welcome, but it will
take higher payroll adds for many months before the unemployment rate
starts to fall to levels more consistent with a sustained economic
recovery.

Other labor market indicators for November during the week include
the November Challenger report on layoff intentions at 7:30 ET on
Wednesday, the ADP National Employment at 8:15 ET on Wednesday, the
Monster.com Employment Index in the early hours of Thursday, and the
employment components of the ISM national manufacturing and
non-manufacturing indexes. The manufacturing index will be out at 10:00
ET on Wednesday and in advance of the employment report. The
non-manufacturing index is slated for 10:00 ET on Friday, and thus will
not be available to forecasters to help set expectations for
service-providing payrolls.

The ADP report is probably the foremost of the above-mentioned
indicators. Now that the temporary Census workers are out of the data,
and some of the volatility related to government education employment, a
clearer picture of the job market fundamentals is likely to emerge, and
the ADP data should reflect that.

Initial jobless claims will cover the week ended November 27.
Initial claims plunged in the prior week, in part due to fewer
unadjusted applications for benefits than expected in the seasonal
adjustment factors. This may prove to be a pattern for coming weeks.
There are likely to be fewer than normal end-of-year layoffs to cut
costs as staffing levels remain pared to the minimum for many
businesses, and many businesses will be reluctant to lose skilled
workers.

The first week of the traditional holiday shopping period will
include weekly data for the ICSC/Goldman-Sachs report on retail activity
for the week ended November 27 at 7:45 ET on Tuesday, and will capture
sales on Black Friday. The monthly same-store sales comparisons for
fiscal November will be reported as available on Thursday, and are
expected to be up from the year-ago month and include the early push to
be consumers out shopping for bargains.

Sales of domestically produced motor vehicles in November will be
reported on Wednesday. The 9.1 million unit rate (SAAR) reported in
October probably will not be maintained, but dealers continue to offer
big incentives and attractive financing to keep the 2011 models moving
off showroom floors.

The last look at consumer confidence in November will be from the
Conference Board in the Consumer Confidence Index reported at 10:00 ET
on Tuesday. The Reuters/University of Michigan measure had a substantial
upward revision in the final reading, and it suggests that the
Conference Board report will be higher as well.

The last of the housing market indictors will be published during
the week. The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September at 9:00
ET on Tuesday is likely to show some another month-over-month decline,
but compared to a year ago prices should still be a bit higher.

Construction spending in October is set for 10:00 ET on Wednesday,
and will have new data on public and private spending for all types of
projects. There will be little new to say about conditions in
residential building except for home repair and renovation.

The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for September at 10:00 ET on
Thursday probably will not signal any substantive pickup in home sales
in the coming months. Going into the colder months, home sales typically
decline, and historically low mortgage rates will not be enough to spur
more sales by themselves.

Revised data on productivity and costs in the third quarter will
reflect the upward revisions in the GDP report, increasing productivity
and lowering unit labor costs.

The ISM manufacturing index for November is at 10:00 ET on
Wednesday. Regional and Fed District Bank surveys are hinting at a
strong reading for the index, but not universally. The Dallas Fed’s
Texas Manufacturing Survey is expected at 10:30 ET on Monday. The
Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer will be released on
Tuesday at 9:45. Both should be of a piece with the other reports that
have shown a more positive outlook for six months from now, although the
near-term is more mixed.

The October report on new factory orders at 10:00 ET on Friday
comes after a reported 3.3% decline in the advance durable goods orders
data. There was broad-based softness in that report, and it will likely
be only slightly moderated by higher costs for nondurables.

U.S. Treasury Auctions

The next leg of the quarterly refunding package will be announced
on Thursday with a new 3-year note, and reopenings of the 10-year note
and 30-year bond. These will auction on Tuesday, December 7 through
Thursday, December 9, respectively. All will settle on December 15.

Central Bank Activity and Public Speeches

There are a number of Fed officials on the calendar, but probably
not much new will be said. Some of the furor around the introduction of
another round of large-scale asset purchases has died down, and the
position of most District Bank President is now well-established. There
will likely be little to discover in their respective remarks as the
press blackout period approaches in advance of the next FOMC meeting on
December 14.

However, Chairman Bernanke’s appearance on Tuesday will likely
include a defense of the large-scale asset purchase program, as well as
when Vice Chairman Yellen speaks on Wednesday.

Governor Tarullo’s appearance on Wednesday is likely to focus on
technical issues in regard to mortgage regulations. Governor Duke’s
speech on Friday is also likely to be direct at her target audience and
concentrate on consumer credit.

St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver welcoming remarks at a
District Bank conference on Monday, and be the luncheon speaker at the
National Economists Club in Washington, DC on Thursday.

Dallas Fed President Fisher will give a speech about the economy on
Wednesday. On Thursday Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota will give
a speech on monetary policy in St. Paul, MN. On Thursday, Philadelphia
Fed President Plosser will be at the University of Rochester to speak to
the Simon Graduate School of Business on the economic outlook.

The only major central bank set to make a routine monetary policy
statement is the ECB on Thursday morning. The following week will be
busier with announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of
Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Bank of England. The Bank of
Japan governors do not meet until December 20-21.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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