By Theresa Sheehan

PRINCETON (SMRA) – Good Friday’s jobs report is set for the usual
8:30 ET and although normally the bond market would be closed, this year
it will be open until noon to accommodate the economic data calendar.
The stock market is closed for the full day.

The relatively early release date of the employment numbers gives
the pre-Easter week something extra in addition to the ISM manufacturing
index, the factory orders report and the consumer confidence reading.
Currently the median market expectation for payrolls is for a
substantial positive, a rebound from February’s weather-related
restraints helped by some early hiring of Census workers.

The ISM manufacturing index will be released midmorning Thursday,
and thus the employment component, not much in advance of the jobs
report but enough to perhaps contribute to perceptions of up- or
downside risks. The ISM non-manufacturing index will not be released
until the following week, so the services employment component will not
be known at all.

The smaller labor market indicators will be in their usual release
pattern prior to the employment data.

The Challenger report on layoff intentions for March early
Wednesday should show a bump in government/nonprofit related to
widespread layoffs in local school districts, particularly California.
But elsewhere the trend in layoffs has been quite mild.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index midmorning Tuesday
will include measures of perceptions of jobs-plentiful and jobs
hard-to-find. The movements up and down in these percentages often
reflect the movements in payrolls, although not the size of the change.

The ADP National Employment Report for March Wednesday morning
promises to also register a solidly positive number. If it does, it will
reinforce expectations for a substantial gain in March payrolls. This
index has been close to the actual payroll number in the last three
months.

The Monster.com Employment Index for March will be published in the
early hours of Thursday. Last month the index jumped up 10 points to
124. A similar gain is not likely, but it could rise further.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 27 are likely to be
of little note to markets given the proximity to the employment report.
However, any sign of falling levels will be welcome.

The overall ISM manufacturing index promises to continue signaling
modest expansion in the factory sector. So far the various Fed district
bank surveys of manufacturing are consistent with some further growth.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook is scheduled for midmorning
Monday, and will be the last survey from a district bank prior to the
ISM report. So far the reports from New York, Philadelphia and Richmond
are still pointing to expansion, and appear to be gaining some momentum
higher.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer is at 9:45 ET on
Wednesday, but should not have much impact on market expectations for
the national index.

Factory orders midmorning Wednesday will take their lead from the
advance report on durable goods which were up 0.5%.

Data on personal income and spending in February will be released
on Monday. Growth in income remains sluggish, and personal spending
probably was soft due to the weather and low confidence. Sales of
durables were likely soft due to weaker motor vehicle sales.

Consumer confidence took a downturn in February and early March,
but has rebounded a bit as the month progressed. The Conference Board
measure should bounce back from the over 10 point decline to 46.0 that
was report in February.

Sales of domestically produced new motor vehicles for March should
be stronger than the 7.6 million unit sales rate in February, but
consumer confidence remains low, unemployment high, and credit tight.
None of this would suggest that sales are going to rebound sharply.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January Tuesday is
relatively old, but the firming trend in home values appears to be
losing some hold. While the declines are not nearly as dramatic as
during the crisis, it still indicates that a bottom in home prices has
not yet been achieved.

Construction spending for February should have few surprises in
private residential construction, although the calculation for home
renovations may prove interesting. Public sector spending should still
be benefiting from fiscal stimulus programs.

No central banks have routine monetary policy announcements
scheduled, although the pace will pick up again in the second week of
April with meetings at the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Japan,
the Bank of England and the ECB.

Federal Reserve officials will be absent from the public space in
the days leading up to the Easter weekend. This will be something of a
respite after the hectic schedule of appearances in the prior two weeks.
Expect Fed policymakers to come back in force after the Easter holiday
and before the traditional press blackout period that will start about
one week before the FOMC meeting on April 27-28.

The U.S. Congress will be on spring break starting March 29 and
through April 9. There will be a break in the hearings regarding
financial regulation reform, housing finance, and Fed policy.

** Stone & McCarthy Research Associates **

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