By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The first week of the month will feature two of
the most important U.S. data releases — the Institute of Supply
Managements’ manufacturing survey and the July employment report —
along with the next meeting of the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open
Market Committee.

National payrolls are expected to show more of the same in the July
report, with a consensus estimate of 90,000 total jobs added overall and
110,000 new hires in the private sector, according to a survey of
economists by MNI.

While the consensus figure would still make for a
steadily-improving economy, it wouldn’t be enough to meaningfully affect
the unemployment rate, which has hovered just above 8.0% for the first
half of the year and is projected to remain unchanged at 8.2%.

There is room for a surprise, however — initial claims have been
somewhat rocky over the month, seasonal-adjustment issues aside, and the
manufacturing sector has showed signs of weakening.

If the report comes in below forecast (or even at forecast), you
can expect a whole new round of speculation over the Federal Reserve’s
next move.

July non-farm payrolls will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Other jobs-related data over the week include the July ADP national
employment report, to be released Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, and initial
jobless claims, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

No fireworks are expected at the next meeting of the FOMC, although
there may be some hint of what to expect in the near future, or at least
a clearer picture of how the committee views the direction of the
economy. The statement will be released Wednesday around 2:15 p.m. ET.

The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, to be released
Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, will be more critically important than
usual, since the previous report showed contraction in the sector for
the first time since 2009. Weakness in the report was also broad-based,
with some of the key sub-indexes (new orders, production) leading the
drop. Markets will be watching to see whether or not it was a blip.

The Chicago-MNI report, widely considered to be the most reliable
indicator of movement in the national ISM index, will also be released
Tuesday at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Other manufacturing surveys over the week include the final July
report of the months-old Markit purchasing managers’ index to be
released Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET., the July New York purchasing
managers’ index, to be released Thursday at 9:45 a.m. ET, the July
Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing activity outlook, to be released
Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET, and the July ISM Milwaukee purchasing managers’
index, to be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Auto sales are one the few bright spots left in the lagging
recovery, which have received a boost from the aging U.S. vehicle fleet
more than anything else. Sales are forecast to continue at a healthy
pace in July.

Auto sales will be released throughout the day Wednesday.

The July ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, while
still less reputable than its manufacturing counter-part, has also shown
a worrisome downward trend over the last five months, although it has
yet to show signs of outright contraction. The index is expected to
remain just above the key threshold of 50, which still indicates
expansion in the sector.

The ISM-NMI report will be released Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The Conference Board’s July consumer confidence report will be
released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, and is forecast to show another
slight drop in the index, which would make for the fifth consecutive
monthly decline. Consumer confidence has still been surprisingly
resilient in light of continually disappointing news on the jobs front,
perhaps due to subdued gas prices.

The May S&P Case Shiller home price index is expected to tick up
slightly, but would remain lower on a yearly basis. Until home sales
start to show real traction (both existing home sales and new home sales
were below forecast for June) it’s unlikely that prices will show any
strength.

It is worth noting, however, that the sale price of existing home
purchases has been steadily improving, as the inventory of lower-priced
homes continues to shrink.

Other data to be released over the week include June personal
income and consumption, Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, June construction
spending, Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, June factory orders, Thursday at
10:00 a.m. ET, and the employment cost index, to be released Tuesday at
8:30 a.m. ET.

Due to the blackout period around the FOMC meeting, there will be
no Federal Reserve speakers over the week.

–Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News in Washington

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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