By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Housing data, retail sales and the minutes of
the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day April meeting will compose
the bulk of economic news releases in the week ahead.

As far as data goes, U.S. retail sales will likely be the market
mover of the week. April sales are forecast to be much softer compared
to gains over the past quarter, which beat market expectations in all
three months.

Though consumer confidence has held steady in recent reports, even
against rising gas prices and renewed uncertainty around the job market,
consumption may be due for a slowdown.

It should also be noted that advanced data — such as retail sales
— are often volatile and difficult to forecast, making surprises in
either direction much more likely.

Retail sales will be released Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Housing data for the week include the National Association of
Homebuilders’ housing market index for May, out Tuesday at 10:00 a.m.
ET, and April data for housing starts and building permits, to be
released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Housing starts are forecast to see a sizable boost after permit
applications rose to their highest level since 2008. The story so far
has been that construction of multi-family housing — condos and
apartments — have been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise
depressed market, as both home sales and prices are still struggling to
gain traction.

This has also been reflected in the NAHB index, which has seen
renewed strength in the last few months. May’s data may give further
credibility to that narrative, or they could be another bump in the
road.

Though the minutes of the FOMC’s April 24-25 meeting will probably
contain no surprises — as the committee’s statement revealed no policy
changes — there is always the possibility, no matter how small, of
clues that could foretell the next great policy shake-up.

However, as job creation is mostly stable — albeit weaker than
almost anyone would like — and inflation is more or less contained,
this will likely not be the case.

Odds are that any market movement will be due to the overall tone
of the minutes as related to the strength and future of the economic
recovery.

The FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Two of the more notable regional manufacturing surveys — those
conducted by the Federal Reserve banks of New York and Philadelphia —
are expected to pare back from last month’s unexpected drops, which had
reversed several months of consecutive gains in both indexes.

It should be noted, however, that the widespread drops seen in last
month’s regional surveys were followed by an unexpected rise in the
Institute of Supply Managers’ national manufacturing index, showing
again that month-to-month changes don’t always fit the broader trend.

The New York Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index will be released
Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s
manufacturing index will be released Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET. Both
releases are for May.

So long as the job market remains uncertain, initial jobless claims
will worth watching. Data for the May 12 week will either reverse or
continue the positive trend seen in the last two weeks: claims have
retreated back to March levels, below 370,000, a range that is
historically consistent with strong job growth.

April’s Producer Price Index contained a pleasant surprise for
markets, in the form of a higher-than-expected drop in energy prices.
The Consumer Price Index for the same month, to be released Tuesday at
8:30 a.m. ET, will likely show the same trend.

Other releases over the week include March Treasury International
Capital Flows data, to be released Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET, March
business inventories, to be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, April’s
industrial production release Wednesday at 9:15 a.m. ET, the Conference
Board’s leading economic indicators, also for April, Thursday at 10:00
a.m., and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly mortgage
applications index Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

Speeches by Federal Reserve officials, listed below, will be light
next week:

Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke will speak on the housing
market in Washington, D.C. Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. ET.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard will speak
on the U.S. economy in Louisville, Kentucky Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

–Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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