Westpac strategist Sean Callow's outlook for the Nonfarm Payroll report due out in the US Friday
(any boldings are mine)
- Gains in US Oct payrolls should be driven by employment in the services sector
- The ISM nonmanufacturing employment subindex was very strong, and has seen the market median forecast for today's release revised up to 184k
- We also see risks to upward revisions of previous prints
- The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.0%, lows back to early 2008 as the median forecast for participation rate remains at 62.4%
- Average hourly earnings are seen to rise 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y
And:
- There is an opportunity for Fed officials to provide their reaction to the payrolls report, with Bullard, Brainard and Williams all scheduled to speak after the NFP release