According to the firm's research analyst, Bilal Hafeez
- China only imports $190 bn of goods and services from the US
- China will not be able to find reciprocal $250 bn worth of US imports to impose tariffs
- No wonder why China is talking about 'qualitative' measures as well
- Hard to gauge what they may be
- Could include restrictions on US visas or investments into China
- Possibility of also weakening the CNY to offset some tariffs
Some food for thought as the trade war rhetoric takes a bit of a breather now. Of note, the PBOC did weaken the yuan significantly in today's fixing. If such a move continues to persist, it'll make for a good conversation piece in the coming sessions.
USD/CNY fixing rate