What is expected and what are other jobs numbers saying?
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, June 4, 2020:
- Median NFP estimate -7500K (-6750k private)
- April -20,537K (all time record)
- Highest estimate -2000k (Action Economics)
- Lowest estimate -11,000Kk (Desjardins)
- Average estimate -7376K
- Standard deviation 2416K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 19.1%
- Prior participation rate 60.2%
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 22.8%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 8.5% y/y vs 7.9% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +1.0% vs +4.7% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.2 prior
Here's the April jobs story so far
- ADP -2760K vs -9000K expected
- ISM non-manufacturing employment 31.8 vs 30.0 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 32.1 vs 27.5 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 2446K vs 2400K consensus
- Conference Board help wanted online demand for hiring not yet released
- Challenger Job Cuts +577.8% y/y vs +1576% in April
The seasonal trend in June shows 52% of the time it's below consensus however for the unemployment rate only 30% of June data points have been higher than expected with 70% matching or below consensus.
In terms of the market reaction, traders have ignored economic data since March, discounting bad data and looking ahead. There has been some better economic data lately but the market has largely ignored that as well. At some point the market will tune back into the numbers and a jobs report would be an ideal time to do exactly that.
Then again, there would be nothing like another 8m job losses with the Nasdaq hitting a record high hours later.