- Median estimate 100K (110K private)
- June reading: 80K
- High est 165K
- Low est 50K
- NFP 6-month avg 150K (but 3 month avg just 75K)
- Unemployment rate est. unchanged at 8.2%
- ADP 163K vs 172K prior (120K exp)
- Jobless claims 4-week avg 365.5K vs 386K last month
- ISM manufacturing employment 52.0 vs 56.6 prior (6-month avg 55.4)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment (not yet released)
- Challenger job cuts down 1.9% compared to June
- TrimTabs estimate based withheld income and employment taxes 115K
- Monster June employment index 4.1 vs 0.7 prior
- Consumer Confidence labor index -33.0 vs -32.9 prior
- Philly Fed employment: -8.4 vs +1.8 prior
- Chicago PMI employment: 53.3 vs 60.4 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 385K vs 378.5K at the time of the May jobs report
- Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: +4793K vs +4718K six-month avg
- May JOLTS job openings: 3642 vs 3568 prior
- The past 4 reports have all been weaker than expected but before that, the prior 8 were better than expected (after revisions).
An interesting side note is that the high estimate comes from Soc Gen. They hint at having an edge, saying that a seasonal adjust quirk tends to boost July jobs in years when June has 5 Fridays.
They also cite the positive trend in initial jobless claims and note that July results can be unusually volatile.
If you can still get a number, join the NFP contest.