The Forex market is a bit sketchy in trading today with price action not all that encouraging. Needless to say, the week has it’s share of risk events with Scotland referendum, FOMC meeting, SNB meeting, Alibaba IPO (Dow is up but Nasdaq is down 1% as portfolios reallocate), and TLTRO making traders a bit hesitant to risk a whole lot (or so it seems).
Here is a technical analysis summary of some of the major forex pairs
The EURUSD could not extend above the 200 hour MA in early Monday trading (green line in the chart below), and fell back below the 100 hour MA at 1.2839. The low extended to the low from Friday at the 1.2908 level. However, weaker US IP and Capacity Utilization slowed the decline and pushed the price back above the 100 hour MA (blue line). The price is currently in between the 100 and 200 hour MA levels with control shared by the bulls and bears. Waiting for the next break. (full look at EUR/USD here)
The EURUSD is below the 200 hour MA (green line) but above the 100 hour MA (blue line)
USDJPY. The price of the USDJPY has a strong ceiling at the 107.38 level (see earlier post HERE). The 107.138-182 is intraday resistance from the 5 minute chart below. The price should stay below this area if the break lower today is supported by sellers on the correction (footnote…the price traded above this level).
USDJPY breaks below up and down chop. Can it keep the sellers in charge?
The GBPUSD which has the potential to be very volatile in trading this week as a result of the Scottish Referendum, has been well contained as there seems to be a calm before the storm. The price is sitting between the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart below). When the market is unsure of the next directional move, it often times sits between technical levels and waits for more clarity. That may be what the GBPUSD may do in the short term. Of course, the BOE Meeting Minutes from the last meeting will get in the way of the calm before the Referendum on Wednesday (along with Employment data) and on Tuesday, CPI and PPI gets released. So get ready for all that, and the calm to turn to volatility. However for today, is there any reason to move outside the technical levels? Not likely.
GBPUSD is below the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.6245 but above the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 1.6198.
The NZDUSD moved above trend line resistance but fell short of the 100 hour MA to the topside (more detailed NZD/USD technical analysis). The price now needs to stay above the broken levels to keep the counter trend traders happy. If not, look for disappointed buyers.
NZDUSD moved above trend line resistance but fell short of the 100 hour MA.
The price action in a number of pairs is just having a tough time of it. Which makes me want to watch more than to get too involved.
Also, here’s a video on USD/CAD.
And some talk on EUR/CHF